wangarific

I was out at dinner with some friends the other day when we started talking about Tiger Woods, his recent accident, and admission of “transgressions.” One of my friends wondered why, in these types of “star infidelity” stories, you hear about multiple incidents all at once. There’s almost never just one and they’ve almost always been going on for many months, if not years. In the case of Woods, the tryst with the cocktail waitress Jaimee Grubbs lasted 31 months, that’s two and a half years!

As we were trying to come up with some reasons, my nascent economics brain came up with this theory. It’s your classic Prisoner’s Dilemma. (I had already enjoyed a pint of Guinness and was working on my second when I put together this theory, so my brain was working all cylinders)

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Prisoner’s Dilemma works as follows: Two suspects are arrested by police and interrogated separately. The police don’t have enough to convict either and they need one to turn on the other. If neither turns, they both get six months sentences for a lesser charge. If one confesses, they get no time while the other gets put in the slammer for ten years. If they both confess, they both get five years in jail.

The idea is that the best scenario is for them to keep quiet, both take the six months, though on an individual basis there’s almost no incentive to ever keep quiet. If they understand the idea of the Prisoner’s Dilemma and believe the other person does as well, then they are more likely to keep quiet.

How It Applies

The chances of any star athlete or movie star having just one affair is pretty slim, so chances are the star has multiple partners in several cities. If you read stories of NBA players, you’ll hear tall tales of having a mistress in every NBA city. So you take that idea and the fact that if each one of them keeps quiet, they enjoy a steady paycheck of dinners and gifts (like cars and apartments). This is the equivalent of a prisoner keeping quiet.

If you talk to the press, you kill the golden goose for a quick media fueled payday. That’s why no one ever talks until they see the end of the road. $100,000 and your name smeared in the press for a few years as a home wrecker is hardly appealing. However, when news of potential philandering leaks, everyone’s brain goes to the same place – they see the other side confessing. They see the ten years in jail (end of gifts and attention) and want that payday… so they confess.

Then the rush is on.